September 9, 2025
A Gentle Bounce After a Winning Streak
After four straight days of fresh 11-month lows, mortgage rates nudged higher today. But the “bounce” sounds scarier than it feels—most borrowers won’t see a detectable change. Lenders only bumped their top-tier 30-year fixed rates up by 0.01%, leaving last Friday’s big drop from the weak jobs report fully intact.
This was less about today’s news and more about the math of markets: when bonds string together multiple days of improvement, the odds of a corrective bounce go up. After 10-year yields slid nearly 30 basis points in just four sessions, a breather was almost inevitable. The good news? This bounce was mild.
🏦 Where Rates Stand
Rates rose just 0.01% today after four days of declines.
The overall improvement from last Friday is still preserved.
Today’s move was more of a technical “correction” than a trend reversal.
📈 The Week Ahead
Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI) – wholesale inflation.
Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) – the big one for markets and the Fed.
These reports will provide the Fed with crucial data as it sets the pace for rate cuts expected in about two weeks. CPI, in particular, could be the spark for more market volatility—whether good or bad for rates.
🐼 Mama Bear’s Take
A “correction” after such a strong streak is like your favorite marathon runner pausing for water—it’s not the end, just a pit stop. Don’t let headlines about rate “spikes” scare you; this was a tiny adjustment. The real drama is coming with the inflation data, and that’s what will steer the Fed’s next move.
