November 18, 2025
📊 A Chaotic Morning of Reports
A handful of economic releases dropped this morning that hadn’t been properly announced or rescheduled — basically a clumsy data dump. Fortunately, none of these were “market movers,” so the overall impact was mild.
The only report worth paying attention to: ADP’s new weekly job metric, NER Pulse, showed another decline, pointing to continued cooling in the labor market.
💼 Why Bonds Were Already Rallying
Here’s the interesting twist: Bonds had already rallied overnight before the NER Pulse data hit.
That tells us traders were ready to buy the dip after yields pushed into the top of their recent range — a common technical behavior when the market is running out of steam on the upside.
In short:
Overnight buying pressure ✔️
Softer labor signal ✔️
Rates opened the day on slightly better footing ✔️
📉 Cleveland Fed WARN Notices Added Momentum
Another factor that nudged things along: Cleveland Fed WARN notices released late yesterday.
These reports track layoff alerts, and the latest batch suggested more weakening in labor conditions — something the bond market tends to react positively to.
That subtle labor-market softness likely helped start the rally before the ADP data even arrived.
🔍 What This Means for Rates
This wasn’t a blockbuster day by any means, but the ingredients lined up nicely for a modest rate improvement:
Mild, messy data
Another weak labor indicator
Overnight bond buying
Technical ceiling for yields
Put together, it creates a more supportive environment for mortgage rates — at least for today.
📬 Quick Takeaway
We’re seeing signs of a cooling labor market, and bonds reacted early. While it’s not dramatic, it’s constructive — especially if data continues trending softer heading into the next major reports.
