FED HOLDS RATES STEADY
🏦 What Happened Yesterday: 7/30/2025
On July 30, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. This marks the fifth consecutive hold since late 2024. The vote wasn’t unanimous—two members of the committee dissented, favoring an immediate rate cut. That kind of internal disagreement hasn’t happened since the early ’90s and signals some tension around the Fed’s next moves.
🔍 Why They Held Steady:
The Fed's decision to hold steady was all about the numbers:
Inflation: At about 2.7% in June, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Economic Growth: Q2 GDP rebounded at 3% annualized, though overall growth for the first half is closer to 1.2%, with a notable slowdown in consumer spending.
Labor Market: Payrolls added about 150,000 jobs per month, unemployment at ~4.1%, and wage growth moderating—conditions consistent with maximum employment.
Tariffs and Trade: Rising trade tensions and tariffs pose upside risks to inflation, prompting caution.
✍️ What Powell Said:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone. He called the current policy “modestly restrictive,” hinting that the Fed doesn’t feel it’s throttling the economy—just gently tapping the brakes. Powell made it clear the central bank isn’t making decisions based on politics or pressure but purely on the data. And while he didn’t rule out a rate cut this fall, he didn’t commit to one either. September is now a big “wait and see.”
🔮 What This Means for Mortgage Rates
For now, mortgage rates are likely to stay in their current range. That’s good news for borrowers waiting out the peak. If economic data weakens, we could see rates improve heading into fall. But if inflation stays sticky or trade uncertainty heats up, don’t count on a Fed pivot just yet. Patience is the name of the game—for the Fed, and for all of us in the housing market.
🎯 Want to know how this impacts your next mortgage move? Let’s chat! I’ll break down what these Fed moves mean for your budget, your rate, and your timeline
