September 30, 2025

Rate Check: Markets on Edge as Shutdown Looms

📉 Mortgage rates are holding steady…ish. This morning brought a tiny dip compared to yesterday’s levels, but for most borrowers, it still feels like déjà vu. Rates haven’t really budged much over the last seven business days. Some lenders even reversed course mid-day, nudging rates slightly higher after bond market weakness crept in.

📰 The data backdrop:

• A government shutdown is looking more and more likely—which could mean no jobs report this Friday.

• Today’s economic releases weren’t blockbusters, but still tilted in favor of rates: job openings stayed low, and consumer confidence slipped.

• Unfortunately, month- and quarter-end trading brought some noise, with bond markets wobbling for reasons that had little to do with fundamentals.

🔍 What it means for borrowers:
For now, mortgage rates remain locked in a narrow range. The real mover would’ve been Friday’s jobs report, but that may not arrive on time if the shutdown hits. Until then, traders (and borrowers) are left navigating headlines and technical trading flows more than solid economic signals.

✨ Takeaway: If you’re house-hunting or refinancing, rates are stuck in a holding pattern. Keep an eye on Washington—because the next swing may depend less on the Fed and more on Congress.