October 29, 2025
Bonds started the day slightly weaker, with most of the movement happening overnight before leveling off during U.S. trading hours. With no major economic reports on the calendar this morning, the market’s slow drift makes perfect sense. Think of it as the calm before the (possible) Fed storm.
Everyone’s eyes are on the Fed this afternoon—but let’s be clear: a rate cut is already baked in. The real intrigue lies in two things:
Jerome Powell’s tone at the press conference.
Any mention of adjustments to quantitative tightening (QT) in the official statement.
While some investors are buzzing about the potential end of QT, it’s important to keep expectations grounded. The Fed’s been hinting at wrapping up QT soon anyway—it’s not the same as flipping the switch to full-blown quantitative easing (QE). Translation: don’t expect fireworks.
Bottom line: we might see some short-term volatility around 2:00–2:30 p.m. ET, but nothing likely to set a new long-term trend. The bigger market movers will come once the government shutdown ends and fresh economic data starts rolling in again.
🎯 Stay tuned for updates after the Fed announcement and what it could mean for mortgage rates.
