November 25, 2025
Bonds Rally as Markets Shake Off Surprise Report Drops
After a few weeks of choppy movement, bond markets finally found some traction — and the shift started before the sun even came up.
Overnight, traders stepped in to buy the dip created by yields touching the ceiling of the recent trading range. That appetite set the tone for the morning, long before the economic data started trickling out. And when it did? The reports were more chaotic in timing than in substance.
Several economic releases landed unexpectedly due to rescheduled publication dates, but none were heavy hitters. The most relevant data point turned out to be ADP’s new weekly job count metric, the NER Pulse, which posted another decline. That hint of labor-market cooling supported the direction bonds were already moving.
Layer in yesterday’s Cleveland Fed WARN notices, which showed elevated layoff signals, and you've got a cocktail that favors lower yields. While this isn’t a massive rate move, it’s a helpful one — especially as markets seek direction heading into late November.
The big takeaway: Mortgage rates drifted modestly lower today, continuing a slow, steady improvement after weeks of volatility.
Why It Matters
Even small improvements help buyers regain purchasing power — especially important as affordability begins to stabilize heading into the holidays. With inventory climbing and price cuts accumulating nationally, lower rates (even marginally lower) create more opportunity for well-prepared buyers.
📞If you or your clients hit pause during the rate swings, now’s the perfect time to reconnect, reassess, and take advantage of improving conditions.
