The Fed’s Balancing Act: Jobs, Growth & Gentle Inflation
Inflation continues its slow fade, but the job market is finally blinking. The September CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, while the Fed’s preferred gauge—core PCE—sits at 2.9% year-over-year. That’s progress, but it’s not “mission accomplished.”
With official BLS data paused during the federal blackout, regional estimates peg unemployment near 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August—the highest since early 2023. The October 29 FOMC statement flagged “rising downside risks to employment.” Translation: the Fed’s more worried about jobs than prices now.
Markets liked that pivot. Treasury yields eased to ~4.1%, keeping mortgage rates near 2025 lows and offering a rare moment of calm.
Why it matters: A cooler labor market could keep the Fed on pause and mortgage rates stable through year-end—welcome news for buyers and refi seekers after two years of volatility.
💬 Thinking about buying or refinancing before year’s end? Let’s review your options while rates stay steady—reach out today and I’ll help you map your best path forward.
