Strong Jobs Report Keeps the Fed on Hold
📅 The June 2025 Jobs Report, released on July 3 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (🔗 BLS.gov), showed the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs—a solid beat over forecasts of 110,000. That might sound like great news, but dig deeper and you’ll find the momentum is coming from the public sector, not private industry.
The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.1%, and average hourly wages rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year (🔗 NerdWallet). It’s a signal that inflationary wage pressures are slowing—but not fast enough to get the Fed moving.
🔎 Reading Between the Lines
🧩 Mixed Momentum: The top-line jobs number looks solid, but most of the hiring is in government and healthcare—sectors that don’t necessarily signal broad economic expansion. The private sector’s slowdown could be an early warning sign of softening conditions.
⏸️ Fed Holds Steady: Investors have slashed expectations for a July rate cut, with odds falling from 25% to just 5% after the report dropped (🔗 Scotsman Guide). The Federal Reserve appears set to pause rate changes until later in the year.
📉 Mortgage Rate Outlook: With the Fed staying cautious, mortgage rates are likely to hold steady or shift only slightly in the coming weeks. Any major downward movement will require further labor softening or a more significant drop in inflation.
🐼 What It Means for Buyers and Borrowers
This report tells us the economy still has a pulse, but the momentum is getting patchy. That’s a cue for strategy—not stalling.
🏠 Buying? Now’s a good time to get clarity, not cold feet. Rates are still manageable with the right loan program.
🔄 Refinancing? It really depends on your situation. If you purchased last year when rates were higher, it may make sense to take advantage of today’s market. But even if you’ve got a lower mortgage rate, consolidating high-interest debt—like credit cards or auto loans—could make refinancing worthwhile. Sometimes, it makes sense to trade a lower rate for better cash flow.
💸 Need cash without refinancing your first mortgage? A HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) or HELOAN (Home Equity Loan) might be the smarter option. They can provide access to your equity without disturbing your low first-lien rate—ideal for home improvements, debt payoff, or major expenses.
🗓️ Looking ahead? Eyes on next week’s CPI report and the July Fed meeting. Those are the next big dominoes for rate movement.
💬 Ready to make a move—or just want to talk strategy?
Reach out to me and let’s set a time to chat. We’ll look at what these market shifts mean for your home goals and make sure you’re ready when the right opportunity comes along.
