Mortgage Rate Crystal Ball: Fannie Mae’s Latest Forecast
Forecast season is back, and Fannie Mae has decided to tweak the dials on its mortgage outlook. The latest September update now calls for the 30-year fixed rate to ease to 6.4% by the end of 2025 and finally dip into the 5’s by late 2026. That’s a slight trim from earlier predictions — think of it as Fannie putting a little less hot sauce on the housing market outlook. 🔗 See the full update here
But before you start drafting victory speeches, remember: other forecasters are not quite as optimistic. The Mortgage Bankers Association, NAR, and Wells Fargo still have 2025 pegged in the 6.3%–6.7% range, and a few contrarians warn we could hover closer to 6.7% if inflation or Treasury yields misbehave. Translation: we’re inching down, but don’t expect a freefall.
📊 Fannie Mae’s Latest Numbers
In plain English: Fannie Mae sees things easing, but slowly. Their revisions included:
Mortgage rates: 6.4% by end-2025, 5.9% by end-2026
Home price growth: 2.8% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026
Inflation outlook: Slightly cooler at 3.1% for 2025 CPI
🔗 Source: Fannie Mae September 2025 Economic Developments
It’s a cautious optimism — enough to give buyers hope, but not enough to break out the celebratory confetti just yet.
🏦 The Other Prognosticators
Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed has been bobbing around 6.30% after four weeks of declines. 🔗 Freddie Mac PMMS
MBA / NAR / Wells Fargo remain in the “mid-6’s” camp for 2025. 🔗 Mortgage Reports
Scotsman Guide notes that while Fannie is upbeat, the odds of a steep drop in 2025 are slim. 🔗 Scotsman Guide
Contrarian takes warn of 6.7% sticking power if the economy stays hotter than expected. 🔗 Mortgage Underwriters News
🔮 What It Means for Buyers & Agents
Here’s the punchline: relief is on the way, but it’s not rushing the stage. Buyers may see a little breathing room next year, but the real fireworks happen in 2026 when rates could finally break below 6%. That shift could unlock thousands of transactions — forecasts suggest home sales might jump nearly 10% if sub-6% mortgages become reality. 🔗 Business Insider
For agents and lenders, the play is about setting expectations: today’s market requires patience and smart planning, while keeping one eye on the horizon for that eventual dip.
✅ Winston’s Takeaway
Fannie Mae’s revision is less about fireworks and more about a slow dimmer switch. Yes, rates are trending in the right direction, but timing the market is still a gamble. Buyers who can afford today’s payment may not want to wait, and those who can’t should be prepping now to strike when the 5’s finally return.
👉 Want to build a game plan that works whether rates are at 6.5% or 5.9%? Let’s strategize now so you (and your clients) are ready to move when opportunity knocks.
