✨ Durable Goods Dip — But Core Spending Shows Strength
✨ Durable Goods Slide, but Core Spending Holds — What That Means for Rates
October’s durable goods orders fell 2.3%, marking one of the sharper declines of the year. Before you picture an economic doom-spiral, let’s break it down — the drop came almost entirely from transportation, especially large aircraft orders.
But here’s the twist: Core durable goods (non-defense, ex-aircraft) actually grew 0.4%. That’s the metric economists look at to measure underlying business confidence, and it remains healthy.
Why it Matters
This combination — weakening headline data but solid core spending — continues to support the “slow-cool” narrative behind mortgage rates. Markets aren’t pricing in big drops or big spikes. Instead, we’re settling into a lower-volatility period heading into December.
With the next Jobs Report and FOMC meeting approaching, this week’s data acts more like the calm before the economic fireworks.
