June 10, 2025

Mortgage Rate Update: Eyes on Tomorrow’s Inflation Report 📉📊

So far, it’s been a quiet week for mortgage rates—especially compared to the jump we saw last Friday. Since then, rates have inched slightly lower over the past two days, but the change is minimal. 🤏

For context, we’re seeing a drop of about 0.04% in the average 30-year fixed rate for well-qualified borrowers. That’s roughly a third of the typical adjustment you'd see between rate offerings—so not a major shift by any means.

The spotlight now turns to tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release—a key inflation report that can sometimes cause significant movement in mortgage rates. 📅 CPI has played a big role in the past, especially when markets were eager for clues about inflation trends and the Fed’s next steps.

Right now, however, many investors are in a "wait and see" mode. Tariff changes and pending trade deals are creating uncertainty, and it will likely take several months before those effects show up in inflation data. ⏳

That said, tomorrow’s CPI report isn’t irrelevant. If the numbers come in much higher or lower than expected, we could still see a meaningful reaction in rates. But for now, it would take a surprisingly strong or weak report to really shake things up. ⚖️