December 9, 2025
Mortgage rates stayed surprisingly steady today—even though the bond market was clearly giving off spicy-salsa levels of weakness. Normally, weaker bonds = higher rates, but timing saved the day.
🕙 Why Rates Didn’t Jump (Yet)
Most lenders set pricing based on pre-10am bond data. Tuesday’s trouble didn’t hit until after the 10am JOLTS report showed stronger-than-expected job openings, which pushed Treasury yields up sharply.
Because that move came after morning rate sheets were already issued, lenders didn’t reprice.
👉 Translation:
If bonds open Wednesday morning where they ended Tuesday afternoon, lenders will almost certainly bump rates higher.
🏦 All Eyes on the Fed: What Actually Matters Tomorrow
The Fed is widely expected to announce a rate cut, but here’s the part buyers and agents often misunderstand:
A Fed rate cut is NOT a mortgage rate cut.
(Mama Bear Hot Tip: In fact, mortgage rates often rise after Fed cuts.)
This aligns with today’s market commentary from Mortgage News Daily, HousingWire, and CNBC:
Treasury yields remain elevated ahead of the announcement
Markets are “positioning defensively” until the Fed reveals its updated outlook
Mortgage-backed securities are trading cautiously, waiting for clarity
Tomorrow at 2pm ET, the Fed releases its dot plot—the chart showing each member’s rate expectations for the next few years. At 2:30pm ET, Powell takes the mic for his press conference, and historically…
🎤 This is where bonds freak out the most.
Rates can lurch up or down within minutes depending on tone, language, and the market’s interpretation.
Check out the video below where I talk about this very topic. 🔗You can read more about it in the full blog post here.
📌 Bottom Line (for your clients & agents)
The rate cut itself means nothing for mortgage rates.
The real market movers will be:
2pm ET: The dot plot
2:30pm ET: Powell’s comments
Wednesday morning: Whether rates reprice higher based on Tuesday’s late-day bond weakness
Mortgage rates are stable for today… but we’re walking into one of the most volatile 24-hour windows of the month. Buckle up, buttercup.
👉🏼 Hit me up if you want to discuss what the market is doing and what it means for your home loan goals.
