March 12, 2025

Why Today’s CPI Report Matters for Mortgage Rates

With fiscal and geopolitical events dominating the headlines, it's easy to forget that interest rates primarily respond to economic data. That’s why today’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is so important—it’s one of the most closely watched inflation reports and has the power to move mortgage rates significantly.

CPI is one of the few inflation reports issued by the U.S. government, and it arrives two weeks earlier than its closest counterpart. Since inflation has a direct impact on interest rates, this report is a major driver of rate volatility.

While other economic indicators, like today’s Job Openings data, can cause some market movement, CPI carries far more weight. For rates to shift dramatically, CPI would need to come in much higher or lower than expected—something economists have already done their best to predict.

For now, stock market fluctuations have had a bigger influence on rates than today’s Job Openings data, leading to a slight uptick compared to yesterday’s levels.

Want to know how this impacts your mortgage options? Let’s connect and find the best strategy for you.