August 12, 2025

Despite all the chatter about the Fed, mortgage rates take their cues from the bond market—which moves most on key reports like jobs data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Today’s CPI was a mixed bag: tariffs and services costs pushed some prices up, while housing-related expenses showed signs of cooling. Translation: inflation isn’t low enough to guarantee a September Fed rate cut, but it’s not high enough to rule one out either.

Short-term bonds (tied to Fed expectations) improved, but longer-term bonds—the ones that actually set mortgage rates—barely moved. When they stay flat, so do mortgage rates.

Bottom line: CPI made headlines, but your rate quote likely looks the same as yesterday’s.